CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Sat 04 Feb 06:00 - Sun 05 Feb 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 03 Feb 17:41 (UTC)
FORECASTER: DAHL

Thunderstorms are forecast across the southwestern Mediterranean Sea and the Ionian Sea.

SYNOPSIS

As continental polar air is sprawling across most of Europe ... especially over the eastern portions ... thermodynamic environment remains extremely hostile for development of any deep convection. Focus remains on the Mediterranean ...with upper cut-off low now over southern Iberia moving across N Algeria ... Tunesia and Libya into the S Ionian Sea during the forecast period. This feature will likely promote two regimes of convective activity ... one beneath the upper thermal low ... which should affect the SW portions of the Mediterranean throughout the period ... and another E of the low along/ahead of the associated /albeit weak/ cold-frontal boundary late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. While convection beneath the thermal low should be rather shallow and weakly sheared ... at best posing a threat for isolated waterspouts ... deep shear seems to be supportive of an isolated marginally severe TSTMS or two ahead of the upper low. Indications are that low-level shear will be rather weak ... but anticipated nearly saturated maritime BL should feature low LCL heights ... and any organized TSTM may also pose a slight tornado threat. Thinking is that weak thermodynamic fields and rather shallow nature of convection should limit degree of severe evolution ... and a SLGT does not appear to be warranted ATTM.

DISCUSSION

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